Impact of urban proximity, transport accessibility and policy on urban growth: A longitudinal analysis over five decades

Transport accessibility is assumed to be a main driver of urbanisation. Like many other metropolitan regions, the Randstad, the population and economic core of the Netherlands has experienced significant urbanisation, transport network expansion and spatial policies aimed to channel urban growth. This paper investigates the long-term relationships between the development of railway and motorway networks, urbanisation, and spatial policies, by using a panel dataset consisting of grid cells measured at six time points from 1960 to 2010. Generalised Estimating Equations analysis was applied to model the built-up area. Predictors include proximity to and accessibility by transport infrastructure, vicinity of urban areas, and spatial policies. Results indicate that road and rail accessibility alike, stably influenced urbanisation, but less than proximity to urban areas. Spatial policies played a significant role in channelling new urbanisation, while preserving the centrally located green and mainly rural area. Remarkably, the legacy of earlier policies is still significant despite shifts in predominant Dutch spatial policies. The findings are expected to be relevant for comparable poly-nuclear areas.